A recession is imminent

Here's how I came to this conclusion.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates a bit earlier in the month. Now, if you know nothing about economics, you would say that the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to slash the fund rate by 50 basis points is good. However, I believe the Federal Reserve has actually taken a position of favoring the growth of the Dow Jones, an index representative only of 30 public equity stocks, over real economic growth. I don't even know that Woodrow Wilson himself thought anything like this could happen to such an inherently flawed system.

Now, the reason the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates is debatable. We know for sure that the subprime lending meltdown played a role in the cut. We know, too, that the sudden decline in jobs — simply indicating that the economy has reached full employment — played a role in the cut.

Now, bring to mind the fact that the Reserve had to inject larger-than-normal liquidity into the system back in August, and you have the makings of a full-scale recession that is looming, if it hasn't already started. We are still in a bear market, and we shall remain in a bear market until the Dow Jones reaches the 14,000 level once again. Not to say that will happen...I think we will be lucky to get there, and lucky to remain stable once we reach it.

What I believe, though, is that jobs will continue to decline, because, again, we have reached full employment, thanks in part to the rise in the minimum wage, the credit crunch will become a full-scale global fiscal crisis, and inflation will rise because of the fall in the funds rate.

And your Dow Jones, in all its glory, will be glorious no more. I foresee that we will fall to the lows back during the last correction (12,517.94), and then we shall proceed to the lows during the smaller-scale correction before it (11,939.61). I don't know that we would fall any more than that, but if we do, it's all because of the same reasons I have just given you.

My predictions for the major indices as we enter this recession:

Dow Jones: 11670-11940
Russell 2000: 730-735
Nasdaq: 2330-2360
S&P 500: 1255-1280
Dow Jones Wilshire: 12750-12990

Hopefully we do not have a large correction like this, but I will tell you I don't analyze emotionally, but logically.

*I am not an economist, so I strongly advise you consult with a broker or financial advisor before executing trades or cursing him/her out.

Update...

I had to miss hosting the first episode of vent on Friday due to circumstances beyond my control, but, of course, you expect no less from me. LOL. Lots of stuff has been happening since the last time I was actually hosting the show, including a slam on Gen. Petraeus.

General Petraeus ad

Now, I expect nothing less from those stupid liberals. I expect that the vast left-wing conspiracy would try a stunt like that. I expect it. But I didn't expect them not just to be stupid, but also to slam the General and to call him "Betray Us."

What a bunch of dumb fucks you are.

Creative? Not saying it weren't, because it most certainly was. I'll give you that much. I have to draw the line at calling a military general in your own country a traitor. You want to call Petraeus the traitor. Yeah, so Nancy Pelosi's journey to the Middle East wasn't treason. I guess supporting Hugo Chávez over our President wasn't treason. And, oh yeah, of COURSE it's not treason to say that you want Bush dead.

Idiots. If that's not treason, then I just grew a third testicle. And...let me check...one, two...nope, I still have just two.

I know you hate the war. Hell, I hate the war. I still support victory and I support our troops, but you apparently don't. That's a different story for a different day. Even if you hate the war, call Bush the names. When you call a military general names, you just make the terrorists salivate. Which, of course, isn't a big deal to any of you fucks because you obviously support the terrorists.

vent.

Yeah, college is getting to me. The fact that I don't have a phone is also getting to me. I couldn't call in, so I had to forfeit the premiere. My apologies. Don't worry...Friday, September 21, I should be on air at 8 pm/7 pm CDT this week. If I'm not, unicorns have eaten me.